The vulnerability that surrounds both teams makes this series so
intriguing. Australia pushed South Africa (Number 1 team) all the way for two
tests but failed to capitalise on the opportunities suggesting the Australians
were still a real force. They backed up the disappointed by whitewashing the Sri
Lankans 3-0 at home. Both performances has people asking are the Australians really
that good? While on the other side of the coin, the Indians have been known to
lose on the road but a loss at home is a rare commodity. So are the Indians
really that bad? Some of the answers will be decided by few of the factors
below.
Home Ground Advantage
The history of Border-Gavaskar suggests teams playing at home have
dominated. Since 1996, Australia at home are 7 - 2 and India at home are 10-4.
It is fair to say playing conditions play a significant role on the baring of
the series. That means the pitches could decide the fate of the series.
Modern day television has allowed us to understand the composition of the
pitches and we at home can judge a turner or a seamer from our lounge rooms. We
have been caught up in reading the pitches too much. At end of day good batsmen
score runs on bad wickets and good bowlers take wickets on flat tracks. Kevin
Pietersen in Mumbai and James Anderson in Kolkata are perfect examples.
There is no doubt the pitches will be turn as the game goes on but Steyn
and Anderson have shown in the past few years, the pitches can be taken out of
equation if you can swing the ball consistently at high pace.
India will make dust bowls and the Australia have to oblige to them. If
their mind can overcome the slow pitches the Australia are every chance to
surprise the Indians. Their pace bowling is perhaps even better than England so
as long as they play to their strengths the pitches can be transparent.
Australian Bowling Tactics
Good teams back their own instincts and the Australians with their selection
in the first test are definately in that frame of mind. The side chosen for the
first test conveys the message of back their own ability rather than worrying
the conditions.
The Australian pace battery is well armed and back up is also well
equipped. Starc and Pattinson are naturally aggressive, but can also be
clobbered with their fullish lengths in India if the ball doesn't reverse. Clarke
is an aggressive leader, he will want to attack from the start of the series
with PLAN A and then revert if it fails.
The inclusion of Henriques will mean Australia can attack from one side and
from the other set sedate fields to him and Siddle. Attacking with Pattinson
and Starc will be Clarke’s master plan. It will also keep the fast bowlers
fresh and the Indians will need to yield their runs mostly against pace bowlers
attacking their stumps rather than the outside off line they bowl at home.
It was a ploy that worked successfully against the Indians the last time
the Australians won a series on these shores. Challenge is if they can execute
the plans once the ball is old. The disciplinary Siddle will execute the plan but
perhaps Jackson Bird should have been chosen ahead of Pattinson. The change
could happen later in the series, at least for now the plan seems to be attack
at every opportunity.
Lyon can give the bowl a rip and while he is not Swann, even players such
as Shaun Udal have caused havoc to the Indians on receptive pitches. Clarke's
captaincy is more imaginative than Ponting, this will benefit Lyon, unlike
Hauritz or a Kreja in the past couple of tours. Don't expect Lyon to win you a
match but if he can pick up at least 2 of India's top 7 he would have done his
job. The expectations set on Lyon will be minimal and it allows Lyon to be at
his best.
Vulnerable Indian top Order
The Indians top order is vulnerable and the young guns love the feel of
ball onto bat. Apart from Pujara and Tendulkar they struggled to grind out an
innings. Persistent pressure can be the undoing of most cricketers but even
more so the young Indian brigade bought up on ODI cricket.
Finally, the selectors have succumbed to pressure and broken up the Gambhir
and Sehwag partnership but it’s not like Murali Vijay has set the world on fire
this domestic season. The Aussies know Vijay well, he’s only 100 came against
them on their last outing to India. In that innings, he faced Hilfenhaus, Peter
George and a derailing, Mitchell Johnson. This attack is more potent this time
around and will expose his lack of front foot movement.
Pujara has suddenly the focus point. At the end of the series he was showing
slight exposure to the incoming ball. Aussies would have studied him in detail
and will look to target his pads.
Kohli dream period is over and the Australians will play plenty of mind
games with him. Kohli secert will lies in keep a calm mind and letting his bat
do the job. Watch for the chit chat when Kohli comes to the wicket, Warner and
Wade will ensure he is target with a verbal barrage.
Finally the master blaster, Aussies have been
planning for him for a long time but he has still amassed enormous runs. Even
though he has scored couple of hundreds in domestic cricket, there were times
in domestic cricket, Sreeshant put him under the pump. If the top 3 play well,
Sachin will flourish otherwise the writing on the wall will be sooner than
later.
One gets the feeling there is more pressure on
the Indian batting than the Australia, as their expected to prosper. Only time
will tell, if they deliver India will win the series.
Australian Batting against Spin
When David Warner or Ed Cowan take guard be assured at the other end Ashwin
will mark his run up regardless of the match situation.
The word “discipline” must be echoed around the Australian dressing room.
Ed Cowan might have stated his ambitions to play like Hayden but he more so
needs to play like Bill Lawry or a Simon Katich. His opening partner, David
Warner will and should attack the new ball, India’s pace battery is weak and it
is great opportunity for Warner to be 40 odd until the spinners are set from both
ends.
Clarke and Watson will score runs. In fact in 2008 series, Watson batting
at number 6 had a terrific series. It is whether the Matthew Wade, Phil Hughes
and Moses Henriques can contribute enough throughout the test series. The
concern for Australia must me “how often” rather than “How Many”.
The Indian spinners are not as good as their ancestors and can be
negotiated by playing the ball late and avoiding hard hands. Australia have
made their intentions clear to attack the spinners but it needs to be
calculated especially from the likes of Wade, Warner and Hughes. The manner of dismissals
for all three could well tell a story of the tour.
Australia knows they need every inch from every player to win, it is a
culture Australia thrives on so this series could be closer than we call
expect.
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