Why the Blues can win Origin 3 ?

Forget the last six series and the first two games of this series. If we look at tonight’s game as one off match, the Blues team is younger, quicker and stronger.  The real challenge is can they play smarter than their opposition. 

Decisive Plays from last year

This Queensland team is phenomenal, but even in last year’s origin some weaknesses began to surface and the Blues proved they had bridged the gap over time. It often took a brilliant play to shut out the Blues.

Cast your mind to Game 1 last year, the Blues were leading by 2 with 10 minutes to go before Lockyer brilliant ball sent Slater across the line to ensure a Queensland win.  Then again in game 3, even though the Blues conceded 24 points in first 35 minutes, the Blues were coming home strong and it was Lockyer, Thaiday, the outside inside ball to Slater that wrapped up the series.  In the decisive moments in last year origin series the two players to rise for the Maroons were Darren Lockyer and Billy Slater.  Both players are not there tonight and without those two game breakers the Blues stand a real chance.

No Slater

There is only one Billy Slater and as good as Greg Inglis is there some aspects of Slater game that even Inglis will find it hard to match. Firstly, Slater positioning at fullback is second to none and although Inglis has played a lot of full back this year needs to be exposed by Pearce, Carney and Farah. With Slater, Queensland have had the luxury of setting up Slater on the right and Inglis on the left to keep the defensive guessing, tonight the Blues can be confident the side of the Inglis is on is the side Queensland will look to attack.  The amount of work Slater does behind the play is enormous and one has to wonder if Inglis has the capacity to attack after all the work. 

Age factor ?

Civoniceva, Tate, Hodges are at back end of their careers and on a dry and fast suncorp track will be exposed by the mobile NSW pack and the pace of the Blues back line. The selection of Ben Teo ahead of Dave Taylor is also a clear indication the Queenslanders are concerned about the mobility of the Blues. For the first time in the many years the Queenslanders have chosen a team to nullify the Blues rather than believing in their own strengths. Also, Thurston is not the same player as he was with Lockyer outside of him and he’s performances in the first two games have been below par. Many will disagree, but I still think Thurston is past his best football at least at the origin level.

Important Note:

In each of the Queensland wins in the last two years they have managed to score back to back tries sometime in the game. Blues need to nullify Qld scoring back to back tries and need to be level with 20minutes to go if there are to win tonight.